Most people predict a quick victory in Iraq, and rightly so, but not many people are talking about the next part of the War on Terrorism. Ridding Iraq of a ruthless tyrant and stripping it of its weapons of mass destruction will reduce the threat of terrorism to the United States. Freeing the Iraqi people and allowing them to pursue their inalienable rights to happiness, will foster positive opinions about the U.S. among Iraqis. The world will be a much safer place due to this phase of the war. However, much more must be done to prevent the violence of the nihilistic Islamofascists led by Osama bin Laden and others. Invasion and occupation of Iraq will not only help the Iraqi people construct a viable society; it will also serve as the stepping stone to the next phase of the war. With the amount of U.S troops, supplies and weapons in the Middle East now, it is almost a given that the government will take advantage of the hegemony the U.S. now has. Our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan will put pressure on regimes such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, and will ultimately allow us to effectively destroy the capabilities of al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
The troops that must remain in Iraq after the current operation will use their foothold in the country to launch covert special operations and intelligence gathering in the bordering nations. The number of Central Intelligence Agency officers will greatly increase in the region, in order to keep an eye on the situations in Iran, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The intelligence capabilities of the U.S. government will dramatically increase due to the existence of a safe base of operations. This will be achieved due to the cooperation of the new friendly Iraqi regime. Nothing is better in fighting terrorism than good intelligence, something that waned in the years leading up to the attack of September eleventh. Establishing an effective base of operations for both military action and information collection will reduce the threat of terrorism to a level significantly lower than exists now.
The benefits of good intelligence are well known yet given less importance than military action by some experts. If any country in the region attempts to arm itself with biological, chemical or nuclear weapons, we will have prior knowledge of their intentions. Arms sales by Iran to Palestinian terror groups may be affected by the presence of thousands of American military and civilian personnel. American agents and troops may be able to prevent the massive arming of groups that attack Israel, which could reduce the degree of terrorism in the West Bank. This would deal a serious blow to the power of terrorist groups in that area. The same applies to Syria, which supports and equips untold numbers of Middle Eastern terrorists. It is probable that this nation will be the next to encounter the American military, yet this will not be in the form of an outright invasion. Syria will be the target of many covert special forces raids and CIA infiltration operations. This will diminish the support that the country gives to Islamic militants in the region.
Another effect of the U.S. presence in Iraq is the pressure the mullahs of Iran will face. Internal opposition has been mounting for some time, and the surrounding of the country by two pro-American countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, will put the Iranian government in a difficult situation. It is also worth mentioning that CIA agents would likely try to foment the rebellion in Iran, further weakening the regime until it finally collapses. If this happens, the world’s premier state sponsor of terrorism would be rendered impotent. This would exacerbate the difficulties that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah would already be facing due to the American presence.
The Saudi situation may be the most complex, since it has been a strategic ally that allows American bases on its soil, while at the same time sending millions of dollars to terrorists. The Wahabi doctrine preached and practiced in the country poses one of the greatest dangers to the national security of The United States. However, one cannot expect to see military raids or a large amount of CIA activity in this country. The ruling family has had on ongoing feud with Osama bin Laden, which prevents any direct connection with al Qaeda. But, the Saudi people are another story, financing and promoting the ideals of radical militant Islam. The best solutions may involve less reliance on Saudi oil and enticing the Saudi people to embrace the sprouting democracy of their neighbor Iraq. It is somewhat unlikely, but not entirely impossible, that the Saudi people will begin to envy the freedom Iraqis enjoy, and will initiate reforms of their own.
Before the U.S. can fully move on to the next phase in the war on terrorism, it must deal with the potentially problematic postwar Iraq. As long as U.S. military forces are there to maintain the peace, revenge killings and ethnic tensions should be kept to a minimum. The Kurds represent the biggest problem, since they seek their own sovereign land to the chagrin of the Turks. This will emerge as the most pressing issue immediately following the war. We must be very careful when dealing with this situation, which could erupt into a full-fledged civil war. One of the most optimistic scenarios involves the formation of a multiethnic and democratic Iraq, with a prosperous people and a bright future. Hopefully, a leader like Ahmed Chalabi of The Iraqi National Congress will set a precedent for peace and progress in Iraq. As this process is occurring, the U.S. will assuredly be moving on to the next phase in the war on terrorism.